Hey guys, I wrote a dinky script to calculate joust odds between a few different decks. I'm sure you could do the actual math, but I just ran a simulation with sample size of 1,000,000 for each matchup. This is assuming both players have their entire deck unused.
| Joust | Face Hunter | Mid Hunter | Zoo | Patron | Handlock | Ctrl Warrior | Mid Paladin | Ctrl Paladin | Ramp Druid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Face Hunter | 32% | 18% | 23% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 0% |
| Mid Hunter | 58% | 36% | 46% | 36% | 20% | 21% | 33% | 26% | 19% |
| Zoo | 52% | 35% | 40% | 31% | 18% | 19.4% | 28% | 22% | 14% |
| Patron | 69% | 46% | 52% | 36% | 22% | 21% | 34% | 25% | 12% |
| Handlock | 83% | 64% | 71% | 64% | 43% | 46% | 57% | 52% | 44% |
| Ctrl Warrior | 81% | 65% | 69% | 62% | 42% | 42% | 57% | 50% | 42% |
| Mid Paladin | 70% | 51% | 57% | 48% | 29% | 29% | 41% | 35% | 25% |
| Ctrl Paladin | 80% | 60% | 65% | 55% | 35% | 36% | 49% | 41% | 31% |
| Ramp Druid | 95% | 73% | 77% | 74% | 45% | 46% | 60% | 54% | 39% |
What do y'all think? The chance of winning a joust was lower than I expected. The fact that you lose ties really gimps the effectiveness of the mechanic.
EDIT: redid the numbers. Previously I was considering every card, not just minions.
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